[Analysis] Ye Siyuan: The oil crisis unexpectedly “ignited” the electric vehicle market; China may be poised for a leapfrog development.
The surge in oil prices has rapidly ignited demand for electric vehicles. Calculations show that for the same annual mileage of 20,000 kilometers, fuel costs for a gasoline car are approximately 15,000 yuan, while electricity costs for an electric car are only about 1,800 yuan, a cost difference exceeding 13,000 yuan. It is precisely under this constraint that sales of new energy vehicles have recently shown a significant upward trend. Market feedback indicates that in markets such as Australia, Thailand, Singapore, and Indonesia, orders for Chinese brands, represented by BYD, have grown rapidly in the short term, with some stores seeing orders in two weeks approaching the levels of the previous month. This demonstrates that high oil prices do not immediately trigger “substitution,” but they significantly accelerate the marginal decision to switch from gasoline to electric vehicles.
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